Apple的首款折疊產品 — 全螢幕折疊MacBook調查更新 / Apple’s first foldable product — the full-screen foldable MacBook survey update
2 min readMay 23, 2024
- 面板供應商和潛在尺寸規格：LGD為面板獨家供應商。除20.25"外，Apple也在考慮是否要用18.8"取代。這兩個尺寸的差異在於對折後分別約等同14–15"與13–14"筆記型電腦的外觀設計。
- 生產時程與處理器：面板與組裝的目標量產時程分別為4Q25與1H26 (vs. 先前的2027年)，此產品預計將採用M5系列處理器。
- 設計目標為面板無摺痕，導致面板與軸承成本高：Apple希望能做到使用時面板上盡可能看不到摺痕，這對面板與軸承的設計規格要求非常高，故面板與軸承成本也非常高。目前初步估計面板與軸承的成本各約600–650美元與200–250美元，待量產時若良率有顯著改善，可望再降低成本。
- 目前LGD (面板) 與Amphenol (軸承) 為Apple獨家合作開發商：要解決摺痕問題，需面板與軸承高度搭配，目前僅與LGD與Amphenol分別為 面板與軸承的獨家開發商。根據過去經驗，Apple在面對創新設計帶來的製造挑戰時，通常僅會與一家廠商合作以利集中資源解決問題，如iPhone 15 Pro Max的四重反射稜鏡 (潛望鏡) 相機就僅與LGIT (模組) 與大立光 (鏡頭) 合作。
- BOM成本/售價與出貨量推估：從面板與軸承的成本看，折疊MacBook的售價應該不便宜，若Apple無法在量產前顯著改善良率並降低成本，那麼折疊MacBook的成本可能會接近目前的Vision Pro。但因折疊MacBook的產品定位相較下更為明確，故出貨量應可顯著高於Vision Pro，預估2026年出貨量可達100萬部以上。
- Panel supplier and possible size spec: LGD is the exclusive panel supplier. In addition to the 20.25" option, Apple is also considering using an 18.8" panel instead. The difference between these two sizes is their folded form factor, corresponding to the design of 14–15" and 13–14" laptops, respectively.
- Production schedule and processor: The target mass production schedule for the panel and assembly is 4Q25 and 1H26, respectively (compared to the previous estimate of 2027). This product is expected to use the M5 series processor.
- Crease-free panel as a design goal, resulting in very high panel and hinge costs: Apple aims to make the panel as crease-free as possible, requiring high design specifications for both the panel and the hinge. As a result, the cost of the panel and hinge is very high. Current preliminary estimates put the panel and hinge costs at around $600–650 and $200–250, respectively. If production yields improve significantly by the time of mass production, these costs could decrease.
- LGD (panel) and Amphenol (hinge) are currently Apple’s exclusive development partners: A high level of integration between the panel and hinge is required to address the crease issue. LGD and Amphenol are the exclusive development partners for the panel and the hinge, respectively. Based on experience, Apple typically collaborates with only one manufacturer to focus resources on overcoming the manufacturing challenges posed by innovative designs. For example, the iPhone 15 Pro Max’s tetraprism (periscope) camera was developed in partnership with LGIT (module) and Largan (lens).
- BOM cost/pricing and shipment estimates: Given the high cost of the display and hinge, the foldable MacBook is likely to be expensive. Unless Apple can significantly improve yields and reduce costs before mass production, the BOM cost of the foldable MacBook could approach that of the current Vision Pro. However, due to the more defined product positioning of the foldable MacBook, the shipments are expected to be significantly higher than those of the Vision Pro. Shipments are estimated to exceed 1 million units in 2026.
